The AFC and NFC Division Championship Games are here! Sunday’s game begins with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders taking on the Philadelphia Eagles. The Kansas City Chiefs will then take on MVP contender Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.
Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys from both games, with analytics writer Seth Walder making bold predictions for each game. NFL analyst Matt Bowen identifies the key game X-factors to watch, and staff writer Kevin Seifert tells us what to know about the officiating. ESPN’s research team also provides key statistics and betting highlights for each match, while our Football Power Index (FPI) contains data for match predictions. Finally, three analysts – Karin Kahler, Eric Moody and Wald – provide us with our final scoring picks for each game.
Everything you want to know in one place to help you prepare for an intense weekend of the NFL playoffs. Let’s get into the full conference schedule.
Jump to a match:
WSH-PHI | BUF-KC
3 PM ET | Fox | ESPN betting: PHI -6 (47.5 O/U)
Commander storylines worth watching: It will be interesting to see what Washington does with defensive tackle Jalen Carter and running back Saquon Barkley. Commanders right guard Sam Cosmi, who faced Carter in his first two games against the Eagles, tore his ACL in his right knee against the Lions and is out for the season. Right now, it’s uncertain who will start, but the replacement won’t be at Cosmi’s level and will have to deal with one of the best defenses in the NFL. As for Barkley, he has thrown just three passes for 130 yards and three touchdowns against the Washington Wizards this season, with another 26 touchdown passes of 2 yards or less. ——John Keim
Eagles storylines worth watching: Quarterback Jalen Injured his left knee in last week’s divisional playoff win over the Rams. He rushed for 71 yards on six carries but was taken down awkwardly in the third quarter; his only rushing stat came when he took a knee at the end of the game. Barkley said he wants “Jalen to be Jaylen,” but questions remain about how much mobile will hurt in the championship game. ——Tim McManus
Just do some statistics and you’ll know: This is the fifth NFC Championship game between NFC East teams and the first since 1986. The two previous winners (1982 Washington and 1986 Giants) also won Super Bowls. ——ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Barkley and Hurts will combine for at least 42 rushing attempts. No team in the league attracts opposing rushers more than the Commanders, who play the nickel 95 percent of the time against 12 and 21 men. Washington’s passing percentage exceeded expectations at minus-10%, the lowest in the NFL. ——Wald
Match the X factor: Commander wide receiver Demi Brown. Brown adds an important element of play in the passing game as a third-level target for quarterback Jayden Daniels. In the Wizards’ two playoff victories, Brown caught 11 passes for 187 yards and a touchdown. Look for offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury to set up the offense for the Browns with split safety and man coverage concepts. ——Bowen
Injuried: Commander | Eagles
Betting on gold nuggets: The Commanders have won three straight games this season with a 5-3 record and a 6-2 record against the ATS. The Eagles have won nine straight (5-4 ATS). Read more. ——ESPN Research
Host Nuggets: Referee Shawn Hochuli helps the Commanders beat the Saints on Week 15. His team filed ten reports against Washington, including two for his rough treatment of passers-by. He also contributed to the Eagles’ Week 6 win over the Browns, throwing five flags against Philadelphia, including a rough passer. Overall, he is tied for third-most warnings for roughing the passer this season (nine). ——Seifert
Kaller’s choice: Commander 31 Eagle 30
Moody’s Choice: Commander 34, Eagle 30
Walder’s choice: Eagle 30, Commander 17
FPI forecast: PHI, 63.7% (average 5.1 points)
6:30 PM ET | CBS/Paramount+ | ESPN betting: KC -2 (47.5 O/U)
Bill storylines worth watching: After three consecutive playoff losses to Kansas City, can the Bills finally beat the Chiefs in the playoffs? The Bills will have to defy history to do that, having lost seven straight playoff road games. The ability to limit quarterback Patrick Mahomes will play a big role, especially given Buffalo’s strength at forcing takeaways. Mahomes was intercepted twice in Buffalo’s regular-season win over Kansas City. However, the Chiefs have gone eight straight games, including the playoffs, without a turnover. ——Alena Gersenberg
Chiefs storylines worth watching: The Chiefs will place special emphasis on third down against the Bills, who went 9-for-15 on third down in a Week 11 win over Kansas City. That gave Buffalo a 71-52 edge in offensive possessions and a 34-minute lead in possession time compared to 26 minutes. Getting Josh Allen and the Bills offense off the field will require creativity and a strong pass rush from defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. As the Chiefs demonstrated last week by sacking Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud eight times. ——Adam Teicher
2:14
Orlovsky compares Josh Allen in ‘Rocky IV’ to The Chief
Dan Orlovsky breaks down what’s at stake for Josh Allen’s legacy in the AFC Championship game between the Bills and Chiefs.
Just do some statistics and you’ll know: The Bills have committed the fewest turnovers in the NFL this season (eight) while also generating a league-high 35 turnovers, including the regular season and playoffs. ——ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Chiefs running back Samaj Perrine will record at least four receptions, tying his season high. 21 percent of targets against the Bills this year have gone to running backs — third-highest in the league. Since I’m also predicting the Bills to win, I think the Chiefs will find themselves in more passing situations than usual. ——Wald
Match the X factor: Chiefs defensive end George Kraftis. Limiting Allen’s ability to get to the edge of the pocket, allowing him to create as both a runner and a thrower, is crucial to the Chiefs’ defense. Kraftis, who had three sacks in the divisional round, was tasked with containing Allen and generating pressure late in games. ——Bowen
Injuried: Bills | Chiefs
Betting on gold nuggets: Allen and Mahomes are 4-4 ATS against each other. But Mahomes is 3-0 and ATS in the playoffs. Read more. ——ESPN Research
Host Nuggets: Clete Blackman has officiated 12 games for the Chiefs since Mahomes was drafted in 2017. The Chiefs are 6-6 in those games and 110-30 in all other games. Blackman’s regular-season teams led the league with 18.1 flags per game, but it’s worth noting that Blackman himself only threw three flags for roughing the passer, tied for the second-fewest in the league. ——Seifert
Kaller’s choice: Bills 34 Chiefs 31
Moody’s Choice: Bills 30, Chiefs 29
Walder’s choice: Bills 29, Chiefs 20
FPI forecast: BUF, 54.6% (average 1.6 points)
