By January of the past few seasons, we knew exactly who the Toronto Maple Leafs would play in the playoffs, leading to ridiculous certainty. In two years these two teams were hot, they didn’t catch the Bears or Panthers first in the Atlantic, and they stood out. That means two or three games are inevitable, which makes the second half feel like a roadblock at times.
As of this writing on January 24, 2025, the Leafs could conceivably face 11 of the other 15 teams in the Eastern Conference. Trust me, I wanted to cut it for this article, but even my New York Islanders have a legitimate chance if they can make it three straight next month (which they have a few games in hand).
So, who does the Leaf want it to be? If they end up with a longer playoff run this season, which first-round opponent will give them the best chance to win a second-round playoff game with a core four ERA?
Let’s work toward the grand reveal of “Who Does the Leafs Want,” thus starting with who they don’t want, and why. I’ve eliminated Washington, Carolina, and New Jersey because they’re likely in the Metro playoffs, and the Sabers because they’re the first “Sorry, but you’re done” team in the East.
A nightmare matchup, obviously. The defending Cup champion is in back-to-back years in the Cup finals, a physical savage made for the playoffs, and the goaltender’s ability to beat the heat stretch is a big answer.
Funny, I still think they beat the Lightning if it happens, but there are too many terrible names to feel good about it. What would the Leafs have, like a 53% chance of winning? Jon Cooper Coaches Andrei Vasilevskiy, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Victor Victor Hedman and Anthony Cirelli – The rest of the team is probably going to be tough with wacky inflatable tube-wielding men.
I know the Rangers are a mess (and have more to sort through), but it’s like the previous paragraph – they have several elite offensive men, Norris is a winning defender and goaltender and is one of the three best goaltenders on the planet superior. They also have a history of postseason success.
Yes, the Leafs are the favorite against everyone named Florida State, but the Rangers, especially if they’re at the deadline, maybe JT Miller? – will be in the minority.
My core belief is that elite difference-makers are teams that should clearly hold off mediocrity by now, so yes: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy and the resurgent Jeremy Silverman could cause problems.
We also call it this: If you’re the Leafs, you don’t just play Bruins, you play Ghosts. This might actually make the Leafs a more preferable matchup, though, as the Cup champions have often had to slay the Dragons past seasons, but there’s no doubt the concern is that the Leafs have a scarier history against the Leafs.
As the Isles go, there may be cries of bias here, but here’s the reality: They have the best goaltending of any team you’re going to read about here. Ilya Sorokin is definitely a name that will have you going into the interview in your head scratching your head “…yeah, I guess we just got a hot goalie.”
Their D-Corps’ performance on three legitimate pairings of Pelech-Pulock, Romanov-Dobson, and Mayfield-George greatly reduced its capabilities. If the Isles get hot and decide not to sell before the deadline, they’ll have enough veterans (Brock Nelson, Anders Lee, Bo Horvat and Kyle Palmieri) to provide you with a series. Mat Barzal has as many pucks as anyone in the NHL. They’re not that far removed from several trips to the Eastern Conference finals, and many players have made it a success. Patrick Roy and those fans can give them some juice. I just don’t think this is a great style matchup for the Leafs (as you read, you’ll see this isn’t exactly the 90s Red Wings).
Gao “Ghost” takes another risk. But more than that, when you look at a team’s record and their roster, you usually get “geez, they’re not as good as their record” (Washington) or “well, they’re their record is actually pretty legit.” Montreal. For me it’s the latter, as all four lines are decent and none of their three pairs have an outright problem.
The return of Patrik Laine, the addition of Alexandre Carrier, the rise of Lane Hutson, and the addition of Sam Montembault and Jakub Dobes. A good goal from Jakub Dobes put them all in a good mood.
Will the Leafs beat them? Very likely. But good vibes, hot keepers and ghosts? The potential for disaster will be very real.
I think losing Kyle Dubas in his second year in the first round to the Penguins was enough to cost the Leafs a million fans forever, give or take. But Pittsburgh is going to have to get hot in the second half, so you’d think the Pens would get some hot goalies. Then I’ll state the obvious: you have to include Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang and Erik Karlsson, and hey, why not, Michael Bunting.
At this point, Toronto is better than Pittsburgh at almost every position. They should think they should win. But stress is funny to people.
Could we witness a rebirth of the Battle of Ontario? Whenever they end up in the playoffs, I think the Sens are going to have to move forward with a Brady Tkachuk-like Hannibal Lecter to prevent him from being a threat to everyone around him Cause harm.
In addition to zone pressure, there’s also the fact that Linus Ullmark has as much potential to get hot as anyone. Senses have speed and they work like hell. At this point, the Leafs are a talented team filled with experienced players, and the team is playing a more secure position than they have been in years past. They should handle the senses well. But Ottawa’s goalies have enough high-end skills to make any opponent nervous.
Yes, the Blue Jackets just beat the Leafs 5-1, and yes, all it did was confirm that they don’t have a roster to hang on to in seven games. Only five teams are getting worse this season, which tends to happen in the playoffs. But their offensive skillset is young and inexperienced, and they have holes in their back end.
The Blue Jackets organization is moving in the right direction, which is great. But I think if you were having a few pints with their coaching staff tonight privately, they would say, “Yeah, we have a chance to play Toronto in seven games.” Not yet, by any means.
The wings are solid enough and the entire lineup looks like Montreal. Realistically, there isn’t a pair or pairings where you think, “That group of guys is going to live.” But, they just lack the game-breaking talent to light up the treble when games are tight, and they get bottom-tier goaltending. I just can’t find a single location where the wings have an advantage.
That said: Because they’re consistent all over the place and they have a good coach who’s looking for players who are going to be part of the solution, they’re going to win some games. I wouldn’t be shocked if they make the playoffs. I just can’t see them winning a game, not a game.
Fun thing about this list: I don’t think any of these teams are Flyers. The league has crazy parity right now.
Travis Konecny ​​may be the same as Matvei Michkov, but he’s also at the beginning of a learning curve. Travis Sanheim can only do so much, and this team has the worst goaltending in the NHL. To the credit of GM and the president, they know where they are and they intend to be sellers. But they’re sniffing the playoffs. If they’re going to go in, I think it’s going to be a short spring.
