Just like that, the Houston Astros traded away the second-best free agent position player in next year’s class.
Maybe it’s the freedom gained through recent success; eight straight playoff appearances and two World Series wins in four during that span. General manager Dana Brown was freed, although he was only on the job for one year and did not appear in a World Series. That freedom comes from having confidence in the organization’s scouting and development abilities and — yes — playing in a state with no personal income tax.
Or maybe there are just enough good players to do it.
But with all the intrigue surrounding the trade of Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs last week, it’s hard not to think about the Toronto Blue Jays and their relationship with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — —Possibly second only to Tucker as the most popular position player in the league. Next year’s free agent class.
So, before asking the question, let’s make some assumptions: How did we get here?
We know the Blue Jays’ ticket sales took a hit last season, but for now let’s take President and CEO Mark Shapiro’s word for it when he says he doesn’t expect any major decreases or increases in payroll. Let’s at least acknowledge Shapiro yes In the final year of a five-year extension… we all know how motivated Alex Anthopoulos was in 2015 when he began to realize that his time with the organization was coming to an end. Shapiro and Anthopoulos are not the same person. But let’s at least understand the context.
These seem to be possibilities:
• Everyone needs to relax because a great job is being done behind the scenes and the front office won’t let it slip. It also defines “urgency” differently than others. I mean, when Santa makes his list, he only checks it twice. If the Blue Jays front office held a Christmas event, the kids would have to wait until sometime in May to get their presents…and they probably wouldn’t get what they wanted.
But we also know that this ownership group is invested in sports and the teams it owns to a level we’ve never seen in this country — Rodgers owns the Blue Jays and Sportsnet and is becoming a majority owner of Maple Leaf Sports. and entertainment. They don’t skimp on light bulbs.
Maybe there will be a press conference today. tomorrow. Next week…next month. Spring training. whenever. Worst case scenario, the Blue Jays get another year out of Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, who will also be in his final season before free agency. Still: The Blue Jays and Guerrero have only been to one arbitration hearing. That was last season, and the difference between the team’s offer and Guerrero’s request was $1.85 million.
As a result, Guerrero’s agent and the Blue Jays have often seemed to agree on his value, which should make a difference now. Juan Soto’s $765 million deal with the New York Mets isn’t important so much as its average annual value and opt-out. Rafael Devers signed a 10-year, $313.5 million contract with the Boston Red Sox in 2023 at age 26, but it no longer counts due to market reasons as a starting point for these negotiations.
However, the top two first basemen in the game are destined to make $27.5 million (Bryce Harper) and $27 million (Freddie Freeman) in 2025, and Guerrero will definitely be in the mix. Building on last season’s $19.5 million… Guys, I’m just not sure about that. The math gets so complicated for a club with a $235 million payroll and most of it about to be paid out. Get that right, plus some opt-outs, and if that doesn’t work, Guerrero could return to free agency at age 31 or 32. Or maybe…
• The Blue Jays front office copied this and completely misread the market, or…
• Blue Jays management has expressed doubts about giving Vladdy what will undoubtedly be the largest contract in club history because of what they are seeing in internal metrics. Maybe it’s just an abundance of caution as he believes Guerrero’s postseason performance isn’t great and his bounce-back in 2024 happens without the pressure of joining a contending team .
Remember: His signing was endorsed by Alex Anthopoulos. While I think people need to let Shapiro breathe a little on the idea of ​​Vladdy being a “generational player” before reacting, well, that’s a matter of public record. Or maybe – just maybe, Vladdy didn’t sign because…
• He doesn’t want to stay here, at least not to skip free agency. Guys, this isn’t my first rodeo: you’d be surprised how players and agents will be there to paint each other as the bad guys. When it comes to public statements or advice, it’s best to assume you’ve been fooled.
We spoke to Friends of the Show David Samson about this blair and buck Samson offered a different twist: At least the Blue Jays aren’t acting like they need to trade Vladdy before free agency. At least the organization seems inclined to keep two potential free agents, give it another try, and simply collect compensatory draft picks. At least no demolition was ordered.
I guess that makes sense. I often wonder if there’s not much to say in trading Vladdy this season if you know you’re going to lose him at the end of 2025. But I also don’t know how fans would react to seeing him seeking the same type of return the Astros got for Tucker, experts like Athletic team Keith Law thinks, okay.
I don’t know if OK is enough for people, because Guerrero represents something deeper than Tucker: He’s the guy who will bring back the magic of the 2015-2016 season. He’s a reward for the flashy events that take place after Bautista, Encarnacion, and Donaldson’s time runs out. He was the star of the next act, a God-blessed national brand thanks to his father’s connection to the Montreal Expos. And if he left, there wouldn’t be much left.
Interesting. I remember interviewing Shapiro early in his tenure and whenever Vladdy or Bo came up, he was quick to remind him that in his previous job in Cleveland, he was very good at trading and signing young players to long-term contracts. Very positive. So far, however, the most notable players to delay their first free-agent debut are Randall Grichuk and Jose Berrios.
Bichette’s agreement only came with a three-year arbitration period, and you and I can do the math on that. That’s certainly due in part to the organization’s poor draft record — they haven’t drafted anyone good enough to warrant a long-term deal — but… they do have Vladdy.
The off-season isn’t over yet. Free agents Antoine Santander, Pete Alonso… they all have the usual flaws that come with age. But they will make the roster better. If the Blue Jays want to sign a seven-year deal to double their pitching, Corbin Burns is still there. The Blue Jays have traded Andres Jimenez in a deal that will surely include more merchandise to address the team’s roster and bullpen issues.
But in and around all of this, I can’t help but marvel at the incongruity of the Blue Jays, who are grateful for a seat at the table with back-to-back winter bids for Ohtani and Soto, while Vladdy sits in the waiting room . He’s next year’s free-agent jackpot, and he’s their everything, just as he’s been theirs for the better part of six years. There must be some value in this, no?
Jeff Blair hosts Blair & Barker on Sportsnet 590 The Fan and Sportsnet. It’s available wherever you find your favorite podcasts.
