But even if one of the above is added, the club will still need to seek out low-market value play to add high-upside depth to an inherently unstable roster. The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees are both star-studded, high-paying teams, but even they pitched low-cost relief flyers like Anthony Banda, Jake Cousins, Tim Hill, Daniel Ha Desen, Mark Wright Jr. and Luke Weaver in the World Series.
So, let’s take a look at some interesting options on the market this winter that could offer great returns with minimal commitment.
Milner is a good example of how fraught it is to evaluate relievers by ERA. The 33-year-old has a 4.73 ERA in 2024, nearly above the league average for relievers. But his 3.15 xERA and 3.14 FIP were both well below that. Looking further into his FanGraphs page, you’ll see that his strikeout, walk and ground ball rates in 2024 remain consistent with the numbers he posted the previous two years, when he posted a 2.79 ERA.
So, what changes in 2024? Milner’s BABIP and HR/FB rate have increased significantly while his off-line rate has plummeted, and all indicators indicate that his surface-level results have been affected by poor ball movement. What hasn’t changed? Milner is hitting 99 percent of his layups, 92 percent of his walks, and 91 percent of his ground balls, and he’s still the best left-hander in the league at drawing the zone and making soft contact on the ground. One of the following pitchers.
The sidearm stuff hasn’t changed either. The shape and action of Milner’s high 70-degree slider and high 80-degree sinker meet his professional standards. Even his third-highest usage pitch, an 80-point four-seamer, earned a +8 rating thanks to an opponent batting average of .059 and a slugging percentage of .137, 60 percent of which Time to hit the rolling ball or the popping ball. Being put into play.
That’s why Steamer predicts Milner will return with a 3.73 ERA in 2025 — in line with left-handed reliever Andrew Chafin, who made $6.3 million and $100,000 respectively over the past two offseasons. Signed a one-year free agent contract for $4.8 million. Milner probably won’t cost anything close to that price.
On a one-year, $2 million contract, Milner can fill Tim Meza’s role — sometimes targeting the tough lefty late in tight games and sometimes cleaning up the starting lineup in the fifth or sixth inning. A mess for the players and then come back for another inning. It’s a tedious job, but Mayza filled the void by producing 2.1 bWAR in 2023. Milner produced 1.7 with the Brewers that year. There’s a good chance he can do it again after an unfortunate season.
If that’s what you’re after, Sims is your guy, with strikeout rates of 33%, 39% and 27.9% in 2020, 2021 and 2023. One of the best pitchers in baseball at suppressing contact quality, he averages a 99th percentile exit velocity and a 95th percentile hard-hit rate.
The 30-year-old’s cutter, curveball and cleanup pitch all have well-above-average level break, while his high-spin, 94 mph fastball can get over the bat at the height of the zone . Stuff+ ranked his cutter the seventh-best among MLB relievers last season and his sweeper the sixth-best.
But there’s a problem. Last season, Sims pitched to a 4.38 ERA, walked 14% of the batters he faced, and allowed 1.5 HR per 9 at-bats.
On-base hits and home runs are a tough combination, but the Blue Jays have helped Wild pitchers hit their targets more consistently in the past. See: Ray, Robbie and Kikuchi, Yusei.
The home run troubles can’t all be blamed on execution. Sims is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and his career has not been helped by zone training at Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park – Major League Baseball’s favorite home-run environment – for the past seven seasons.
Over the past two seasons, four of Sims’ 13 home runs have hit less than 378 feet, and the other three were not hit at Rogers Center. While hitters had a .413 slugging percentage against him last season, his xSLG was .384 based on the quality of contact he allowed. Put Sims in a less-than-friendly environment for a hitter, and his results should look much better.
The Blue Jays like to bet on undervalued pitchers, and Sims’ bet won’t be too high. It can be done for $3 million a year.
Had Turnbull not missed the second half of the season with a strained back, he could have been considered for a multi-year deal this winter after posting a 2.65 ERA in his first 54.1 innings as a swingman with the Phillies. . A .233 BABIP and 84% winnowing rate suggest luck is on his side, but the fact that a 26.1% strikeout rate or 47.5% of contacts were on the ground is indisputable.
Turnbull can produce those velocity statistics because he throws six different pitches more than 5 percent of the time. He’s primarily a four-seamer, sinker, sweeper; but also has a curveball and changeup for lefties, and a harder, tighter slider when he wants the glove-side edge of the penalty zone. His curveball, in particular, is a pitch he could use more often, as he allowed just one hit last season and struck out 59.4 percent of the time when batters were at bat.
Turnbull will clearly provide Toronto’s pitching department with plenty to work with, and a quick look at his 2024 heat map shows how reliably he’ll be able to find each of his six pitches:
The 32-year-old needs a one-year deal to prove his health and rebuild value. The Blue Jays could try to sign him for $2-3 million and give him incentives to appear or pitch and move him into a swingman role, using Turnbull’s length and rotation insurance out of the bullpen, which would That will free up Yariel Rodriguez for shorter, more targeted, high-leverage appearances.
Here’s a list, in order, of the Blue Jays relievers with the highest average fastball velocity in 2024: Nate Pearson, Yimi Garcia, Jordan Romano, Yerry Rodriguez, Genesis Cabrera, Luis Frias.
All but Garcia are no longer members of the Blue Jays. Other top pitchers returning in 2025 from last year’s bullpen include Chad Green, Tommy Nance and Ryan Burr. Clearly, the club needs to find a way to make up for the loss of pace.
Wingert can help. Last season, his fastball averaged 97.1 mph and regularly hit 99 mph. Thanks to the right-hander’s 88 percent reach, Wingert took full advantage of his 6-foot-7 frame, releasing the ball 7 feet off the rubber — Statcast measured the hitter’s perceived velocity at 98.3 miles per hour.
Wingert’s problem, like many strong pitchers, is control. He has a career walk rate of 12 percent, and the flat shape of his fastball makes him vulnerable to hard contact when he can’t get the ball to the edge of the zone. But the 30-year-old struck out 30.5 percent of the batters he faced in four seasons in MLB and produced a whopping 46.7 OPS with a sharp downward-breaking Bullet slider. % hit rate.
The tools for an elite leverage reliever are here – Wingert just needs help leveraging them. The Blue Jays take great pride in their staff’s ability to help pitchers with top-notch pitching talent improve. A minor league deal is all it takes to get Wingert out of spring training, and the Blue Jays could add to that by offering him decent guarantees if he makes the team out of training camp. It’s an extremely low-risk gamble to see if Toronto can put it all together and be the eventual winner when something happens and Wingert puts it all together.
The story of Rose’s career is one of never reaching his potential due to injuries, with the 2011 first-round pick undergoing two Tommy John surgeries in five years. It’s a familiar refrain in 2024, when Rose is playing in the majors for the first time in three years but started just nine games during the season due to back problems.
But upon his return in August, the Brewers moved Ross to the bullpen, and the right-hander took off. Rose pitched an extra fastball in 27 relief innings over the final two months of the season, posting a 1.67 ERA and two scoreless runs in Milwaukee’s wild-card series against the Mets.
Rose is still only 31 years old and has a lot of tools at his disposal as a reliever. Last season, he posted strong run numbers on both a mid-90s sinker (+5) and a mid-80s slider (+5), the latter of which produced a 38.4% leak rate. He also threw a four-seamer, curveball and hard-split changeup to lefties with above-average armside movement. We all know how much the Blue Jays love splitters.
All it takes is a minor league contract and $1-2 million in guaranteed money from the majors to add Rose to Toronto’s spring training bullpen mix. His starting experience enables him to fulfill multiple roles. He can work short pitches against right-handers; he can chew up multiple innings after a starter briefly goes out; and he can even make a start here or there if needed. He’ll be this year’s Trevor Richards or right-hander Ryan Yarbrough — an unsung but vital role in any successful bullpen.
