Their most significant trade to date was the acquisition of Andres Gimenez, the three-time Gold Glove second baseman who is owed $99.357 million over the next five years, the first in club history for a player. Five major financial commitments.
Plus reliever Nick Sandlin (also from the Cleveland Guardians in the trade that sent Spencer Horvitz (who later went to Pittsburgh) and rookie Nick Mitchell) and leverage arm Yimi · Reunited with Garcia ($15 million, two years), the trio lifts a Blue Jays floor that was severely dented during last season’s miserable 74-88 run.
The question then becomes whether these moves are the appetizer or the main course of winter, and assessing that requires digging into the extremely conflicting information circulating about the club within the industry. The consensus is that the Blue Jays are trying to do more and continue to participate in the overall market. But they are sometimes described as having money to spend, or being in a calculating state, eager to pounce or prepared to be patient (leaning towards patience). Meanwhile, the American League East is ahead of them in almost every way and building around them. Still, large inventories and off-season conditions remain.
Also hanging over the Blue Jays is the undetermined long-term future of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is at the center of several players whose contracts expire after the 2025 or 2026 seasons. , he could completely derail the current competitive window.
So, clearly, the organization is in a precarious position. Based on conversations with multiple industry sources, let’s break it down:
As noted, Jimenez is a huge spend, the Blue Jays’ first guaranteed player in 2029, a player who helps renew the core, and a game-changing player heading into his age-26 season. Defender. What’s not said is that he also has a chance to take over at shortstop if Beau Bichette leaves via free agency next winter or is traded before next summer’s deadline.
This is one of the quieter parts. Another less quiet issue is that Jimenez has struggled at the plate since his breakout season in 2022, when he posted an OPS of .837 and an OPS+ of 141. Those numbers drop to 0.712/96 in 2023 and 0.712/96 in 2023 . He has a 638/82 rating this season, raising the possibility that his value to a team hungry for more offense will be primarily defensive.
In a Zoom call with the media last week, Guardian president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said, “We continue to believe Andres has a chance to be a really productive major league hitter hand” and the club has been working to “really clarify and adjust” with him to understand his performance as a hitter and help him work in that direction. “
When asked to describe what the piece would look like, Antonetti responded: “It’s best to let the Blue Jays express it accurately at the moment. What I can share is that we think there’s a better team out there than we’ve had in the past year or so.” The better offensive player I’ve seen in time.”
Maybe, but even if the Guardians’ main goal is to reallocate Gimenez’s salary because they feel they have depth in the middle infield, as Antonetti explained, if more teams are willing to do what the Blues have Betting on his bat, they’ll also find better returns as Jayce did.
That makes it a huge risk, even if two rival executives say Gimenez’s defense is good enough to justify his salary. This is in a vacuum, of course, but as a third executive warned, the Blue Jays need to be wary of falling into a war trap where other flaws on the roster prevent them from getting the most out of a player’s primary value.
On a team with a deep and productive core of order, it’s nice to carry a player whose value comes primarily from defense. But the Blue Jays also need at least an impact bat to help back up Guerrero, and as 2024 has shown, relying solely on interior improvement and run prevention can blow up in a team’s face.
Maybe this will happen again next summer. Alternatively, Jimenez could recapture the 2022 form that earned him a big extension from Cleveland and bolster the lineup with another offensive player. But the Blue Jays may have carefully examined the market and concluded that Jimenez was the best option with their limited funds, an especially fatal decision if it cut off their other pursuits.
Other pursuits and salary considerations
A natural byproduct of the Blue Jays’ omnipresence in all markets this offseason is that they can be anyone to anyone because their pursuits make everything seem reasonable. On the one hand, they began pursuing Juan Soto a year after trying to lure Ohtani north, refusing to let cost be a barrier to entry. On the other hand, they were non-tendered Jordan Romano, who ended up signing with the Philadelphia Phillies for more than his arbitration fee.
From reckless spendthrifts to ruthless misers, they’re all catered for.
While it’s difficult to reconcile, this management’s model is to pursue top talent while sticking to their valuations. Sometimes, when they needed to push a deal over the finish line (especially Hyun Jin Ryu and George Springer), they did. Since signing Kendrys Morales early ($33 million, three years) at the start of the 2016-17 offseason, they’ve generally chosen to wait for the market to find the best deal.
So they’re engaged with Corbin Burns, who is undoubtedly looking for a payday in addition to the $218 million, eight-year contract Max Fried signed with the Yankees. Given that Fried’s contract is beyond their comfort point, the same could very well happen with the ace right-hander.
The Blue Jays also continue to be interested in reuniting with players like Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Santander, although how they value them and how much spending room they still have is difficult to determine.
These pursuits demonstrate a certain level of spending power. Another clue is that they’re casting Cody Bellinger, who plays John Heyman First mentioned in the New York Postthen the Cubs sent him and $5 million to the Yankees for righty Cody Poteet.
Since Bellinger is owed $27.5 million this year and has a $25 million player option for 2026 with a $5 million buyout, the Blue Jays will only be able to get in on the action if they can handle those financial issues.
Now, from what I understand, their payroll is not just your budget, you have X to spend. A baseline has been established, which is likely what President and CEO Mark Shapiro was referring to when he said on Oct. 2 that he didn’t expect spending to “increase or decrease significantly” in 2024. But they have room to pursue special opportunities – which is how they paid for Ohtani and Soto – so they can pursue players aggressively if there’s a sound business case.
FanGraphs currently projects the Blue Jays’ 2025 payroll to be used for competitive balance taxes at $228.5 million. They believe their luxury tax threshold will be $237 million by 2024 and their payroll will be $250 million when the season starts, so next year’s luxury tax threshold will likely be $241 million, and next year The luxury tax threshold will reach US$241 million. The second is $261 million.
So, it looks like they have some money to work with, but they can’t spend it frivolously.
As Fernando Tatis Jr. signs a $340 million, 14-year pre-arbitration extension with the San Diego Padres in 2021, early attempts to sign Guerrero and Bichette to long-term deals Likewise, Soto also signed a $765 million, 15-year contract with the Mets, a new factor for future free agents.
The exact impact is up for debate, with even Scott Boras, the influential agent who represents Soto, saying the record contract “is like an umbrella for elite players.” Shades, but not for his level.”
“One great generation of talent is not going to have an exponential impact on the market,” he continued. “It’s a very slow-moving thing because we’re back to the theorem of good business. Owners are only going to do things for a certain skill level and age. And those types of players only really come along once a decade, 20 years.”
Soto is the perfect storm of talent, age (sold in the 26-and-over season) and market competition. Guerrero is another dynamic generational talent who will have his age-27 and older seasons on the market, and there’s good reason to think he could spark a similar bidding frenzy, if not at as high a dollar level.
The challenge for the Blue Jays, then, is to acquire Guerrero and deprive him of the opportunity to see how far the open market might push his salary, especially if he has another monster season. Assessing how far the goalposts have moved is complicated and may require other teams to help determine his value in a post-Soto world, as players often look to established salary structures when teams negotiate their valuations and Position yourself relative to your peers.
In order to complete a trade for Guerrero before he hits free agency, the Blue Jays will have to step out of their comfort zone, and the four-time All-Star first baseman will have to give up some upside.
Threading the needle is not easy, but it is possible. Leading indicators will be the timing around the Jan. 9 arbitration filing deadline and the start of spring training.
