Seth Wold, ESPN Analysis
With three weeks left in the 2024 regular season, the NFL’s playoff landscape is incredibly settled. Seven teams have already locked up playoff spots — three in the NFC and four in the AFC — with seven spots left up for grabs.
Which teams will fill those spots? Based on 10,000 simulations of the end of the season using ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), there are 4,393 unique playoff team and seeding combinations. However, the focus below is on one specific scene: chalk.
The ESPN FPI model accurately generates the most likely teams and seeds. This scene is not all That Most likely because the exact seeds for the 14 teams below appeared in 73 simulations. This is less than 1%, but more likely than any other combination. Individually, the following AFC seeds have an 11% chance of appearing, and the NFC seeds have a 6% chance of appearing.
From a set of simulations that produced chalk playoff fields, I randomly selected one to show how it all plays out — both in the regular season and beyond. When I ran this exercise a year ago, the simulation correctly identified the participants and outcomes for the conference championship game and Super Bowl.
Can this scene be matched? Welcome to simulation number 812. Here’s how the rest of the 2024 NFL season unfolds:
Jump to:
Score predictions by week: 16 | 16 17 | 17 18
Final ranking: AFC | Near Field Communication
Playoffs: Who will win Super Bowl LIX?
Projected Week 16 Scores
DEN-LAC: Chargers 22, Broncos 20
HOU-KC: Chiefs 28, Texans 24
PIT-BAL: Steelers 30, Ravens 24
NYG-ATL: Falcon 33, Giants 30
NE-BUF: Bills 19, Patriots 8
DET-CHI: Lion 28, Bear 22
Klessing: Browns 33, Bengals 30
No. 10: Colts 24, Titans 9
Saturday – New: Jets 16, Rams 13
PHI-WSH: Commander 20, Eagle 17
ARI-CAR: Panthers 17, Cardinals 16
MIN-SEA: Seahawks 30, Vikings 20
JAX-LV: Jaguars 24, Raiders 16
SF-MIA: 49ers 24, Dolphins 14
TB-DAL: Pirates 21, Cowboys 14
NO-GB: Packers 27, Saints 24
what happened: The most critical outcome of Week 16 is the AFC North matchup between the Steelers and Ravens. Pittsburgh, fresh off a loss to the Eagles, got off the mat and beat Baltimore. Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson once again produced an explosive performance upfield, clinching an AFC North spot for Pittsburgh and relegating the Ravens to a wild-card berth.
In a battle between potential AFC wild-card teams, the Chargers narrowly defeated the Broncos and Los Angeles defeated Denver in the tiebreaker. This could be crucial in avoiding the Bills (or Chiefs) in the playoffs.
Elsewhere, the play-callers are complicating the Eagles’ bid for the NFC’s No. 1 seed. It was part of a stellar week for the Lions, who solidified their spot at the top of the table with a win over the Bears, while the Vikings were upset by the Seahawks. Seattle’s win, coupled with the Rams’ loss to the Jets, puts the Seahawks back in first place in the NFC West. Two weeks to go.
Week 17 projected scores
KC-PIT: Steelers 20, Chiefs 17
Barr Hou: Texans 34, Ravens 14
SEA-CHI: Seahawks 24, Bears 17
NYJ-BUF: Bills 25, Jets 24
GB-MIN: Vikings 24, Packers 16
LV-NO: Raiders 24, Saints 7
CAR-TB: Pirate 23, Black Panther 3
TEN-JAX: Jaguar 27, Titan 14
DAL-PHI: Cowboys 17, Eagles 10
Denzing: Broncos 34, Bengals 20
Ali Lal: Rams 17, Cardinals 10
LAC-NE: Patriot 45, Lightning 14
IND-NYG: Giants 31, Colts 14
ATL-WSH: Falcon 26, Commander 15
MIA-CLE: Dolphins 21, Browns 13
DET-SF: Lions 38, 49, Men 31
what happened: The Chiefs lost to the Steelers, while the Bills (barely) lost to the Steelers against the Jets, putting their claim to the AFC’s top seed at risk. That puts Buffalo within a game of Kansas City and a tiebreaker that would allow the Bills to beat the Patriots in Week 18 without Kansas City losing to the Broncos to clinch the top seed. Location.
Led by new starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr., the Falcons surprised the generals and kept the pressure on the Buccaneers in the NFC South, but Tampa Bay ended with a dismantling of the Panthers in response.
The Rams and Seahawks defeated the Cardinals and Bears by touchdowns, respectively, to prepare for their NFC West Championship showdown in Week 18 at SoFi Stadium.
Projected Week 18 Scores
CAR-ATL: Panther 31, Falcon 10
WSH-DAL: Commander 27, Cowboy 24
KC-DEN: Chiefs 33, Broncos 27
MIN-DET: Lions 30, Vikings 21
CHI-GB: Packers 10, Bears 3
HOU-TEN: Titans 31, Texans 28
JAX-IND: Jaguars 20, Colts 9
LAC-LV: Chargers 34, Raiders 20
Sea-Lal: Rams 16, Seahawks 7
BUF-NE: Bills 45, Patriots 15
MIA-New York: Dolphins 30, Jets 17
NYG-PHI: Eagles 34, Giants 17
SF-ARI: 49ers 19, Cardinals 10
CIN-PIT: Bengals 23, Steelers 7
No TB: Buccaneers 27, Saints 13
Clay Barr: Ravens 36, Browns 10
what happened: The Chiefs narrowly retained the top seed. Kansas City needs to beat Denver as the Bills beat the Patriots 45-15. The game came down to the wire, with the ball in Bo Nix’s hands trailing by six points on the final drive. But the Chiefs got the shot they needed, holding on for a win to earn the top seed and a first-round bye.
The Buccaneers captured the NFC South title for the fourth consecutive season, easily defeating the Saints. They didn’t need to win to clinch the division title, though, as the Falcons unexpectedly lost to the Panthers, ending Atlanta’s playoff hopes.
The Rams outplayed the Seahawks defensively in the battle for the NFC West title and the division’s lone playoff spot. According to ESPN Research, Los Angeles became the first team in NFL history to reach the playoffs two consecutive years despite finishing below .500 in three of those games.
1:01
Will the Lions’ injuries deal a fatal blow to their Super Bowl chances?
Jeff explained Saturday why the Lions’ injuries have been a devastating blow to their Super Bowl chances.
Predict AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
2. Buffalo Bills (14-3)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5)
4. Houston Texans (10-7)
5. Baltimore Ravens (10-7)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)
7. Denver Broncos (10-7)
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8. Miami Dolphins (8-9)
9. Indianapolis Colts (7-10)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-10)
11. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-11)
12. New York Jets (5-12)
13. Tennessee Titans (4-13)
14. Cleveland Browns (4-13)
15. New England Patriots (4-13)
16. Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)
Chiefs retain No. 1 seed: Kansas City weathered the storm of Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury, losing to the Steelers and the hot Bills right behind them to lock up the crucial No. 1 seed. Each of the Chiefs’ wild plays proved to be a win — from Isaiah Lekley’s toe barely out of bounds in Week 1, to a blocked field goal attempt against the Broncos in Week 10, to Aidan O’Connell Nair conceded a goal in the final seconds of the black ball. Friday – Get first place.
Ravens return to form to earn fifth seed: After the Steelers eliminated the Ravens from the AFC North, Baltimore had to set its sights on a matchup between No. 4 and No. 5 on wild-card weekend. But that became a real issue when the Ravens lost to the Texans in Week 17. They bounced back in Week 18, easily beating the Browns to move to 10 wins and beating the Chargers and Broncos head-to-head to become the fifth seed. That way, the Ravens would face the weaker Texans (rather than the Bills or Steelers) in the playoffs and preserve their outside shooting at home.
Chargers, Broncos enter AFC playoffs: In this case, the Chargers and Broncos both went 10-7 (along with the Ravens), but the Chargers beat the Broncos twice to earn the No. 6 seed via tiebreaker. That leaves the Chargers facing the Steelers in the wild-card round, while the Broncos must travel to Buffalo.
Project NFC
1. Detroit Lions (15-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-4)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-6)
4. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (13-4)
6. Green Bay Packers (12-5)
7. Washington Commanders (11-6)
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8. Seattle Seahawks (10-7)
9. Atlanta Falcons (9-8)
10. San Francisco 49ers (8-9)
11. Dallas Cowboys (7-10)
12. Arizona Cardinals (7-10)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-12)
14. Carolina Panthers (5-12)
15. Chicago Bears (4-13)
16. New York Giants (3-14)
Lions earn No. 1 seed: Despite their current injury woes, Detroit’s grip on the No. 1 seed quickly grew in Simulator Round 812, as they won in Week 16 against two rivals for the No. 1 spot — Minnesota and Philadelphia — All lost. The path to the NFC Super Bowl will pass through Ford Field.
Buccaneers stay hot, win NFC South title: Baker Mayfield’s show continues as the Buccaneers end the regular season with seven straight wins. The Falcons needed to win and the Buccaneers needed to lose a game, but neither happened.
Rams beat NFC West in final regular season game: With the Seahawks and Rams vying for the division title and lone NFC West playoff spot, the league moved Week 18’s game to Sunday night. With the nation watching, Jared Firth, Kobe Turner and Brayden Fisk caught Seattle quarterback Geno Smith in a matchup that gave the Rams a win The victory kept the season alive.
Commander gets wild card spot: Outside of the NFC West, most of the NFC field has settled in Week 16. The Commanders still have some things to take care of to secure their playoff spot, and they defeated the Eagles and Cowboys in the final three weeks to move to 11 wins and the 7th seed.
Giants receive No. 1 draft pick: Unbelievably, all The contenders for the No. 1 pick — the Giants, Raiders, Patriots, Browns, Titans, Jaguars and Panthers — have won at least one of their final three games. That leaves the Giants and Raiders as the only three-win teams. In this simulation, the Giants win a power-play tiebreaker to get the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft.
What to look forward to in the playoffs
Expected wild card matchups:
Broncos(7) vs. Bills(2)
Chargers (6) vs. Steelers (3)
Ravens(5) vs. Texans(4)
Eagle Commander(7) (2)
Packers (6) vs. Buccaneers (3)
Vikings (5) vs. Rams (4)
Who comes along? Remember, this is a simulation. The chalk portion of this exercise ends at the end of the regular season, and from there it’s pure (weighted) randomness. Still, I want to know how it turns out, and I guess you do too.
In the AFC Championship game, the Bills and Steelers won their home wild-card games, but the Ravens narrowly defeated the Texans on the road 27-24. The No. 5 seed also won in the NFC game, with the Vikings beating the Rams. Elsewhere, the Buccaneers defeated the Packers and the Eagles narrowly defeated the Commanders 30-28.
In the divisional round, the favorites dominate…with one exception. The Ravens defeated the Chiefs 27-7, ending Kansas City’s hopes of a third straight title. The Eagles defeated the Buccaneers by two touchdowns, and the Bills and Lions defeated the Steelers and Vikings by one score each.
The AFC Championship Game was a tug-of-war between the two MVP leaders, but Josh Allen and the Bills prevailed 24-23 to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in 31 years. In the NFC game, the Lions’ defense held down AJ Brown, Saquon Barkley and the Eagles, winning 23-10 to secure the franchise’s first Super Bowl berth.
Expected Super Bowl LIX games: Buffalo(2) VS Buffalo-Detroit(1)
Like the Bills-Lions matchup in Week 15, Buffalo never relinquished a two-point lead. With Allen’s incredible rushing performance and outstanding play from the secondary, the Bills defeated the Lions 27-13 to win their first Super Bowl championship.
ESPN’s Hank Gargiulo contributed to this report.
