The Toronto Blue Jays’ trade of Andres Jimenez on Tuesday is an example of the organization taking a chance on acquiring an impact player in his down years.
Over the past three seasons, Jimenez ranks 26th in the majors in fWAR, narrowly ahead of big-name players like Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and Willy Adames. That ranking has dropped to No. 53 over the past two seasons as his career ends in 2022, but his value is still well above the average starter. In 2024, he slashed a horrific .252/.298/.340, but was still a Top 10 players at his position by fWAR.
Generally speaking, it’s not easy to pry away a player with this kind of overall value, but the Blue Jays were able to do so thanks to a relatively large contract with a residual value of nearly $100 million, as well as an interest in him Legitimate concerns about offensive trajectory:
The Blue Jays can run Jimenez out of the middle of the diamond and believe he will be a valuable player no matter how he hits the ball. He has nine more defensive saves (43) than any major leaguer since 2022, and at 26 years old, he is in his physical prime. He was also a solid baserunner, stealing 60 bases over the past two seasons and being caught just 11 times. His floor is about as high as any player in the major leagues.
That’s all well and good, but if the Blue Jays can’t get more out of Gimenez’s bat than he’s shown lately, they’ll be investing valuable trade chips in acquiring him — and in a crucial position Reducing their financial flexibility this offseason — only to further weaken an offense that ranked 23rd in scoring last season.
In 2027 and beyond, when Gimenez’s contract reaches $23.57 million, it will be difficult for him to provide value to the Blue Jays in a purely defensive capacity. If the Blue Jays didn’t think he could play better than he did last season, they wouldn’t have made this deal.
At first glance, this does not seem like a far-fetched hypothesis.
Jimenez posted a 141 wRC+ two seasons ago, and FanGraphs’ Steamer projection system has him posting an above-average 103 wRC+ in 2025. If he plays this well while continuing to provide the same defensive impact he has had in recent seasons, the Blue Jays can be smug about this trade.
Before the pats on the back begin, the barrier between Jimenez and even a league-average offense is worth acknowledging.
The second baseman is an extreme free swinger. He is one of 104 hitters with more than 2,000 at-bats since he entered the league. Only three of them have a walk rate lower than Jimenez’s 5.1%. He’s not quite in Ernie Clement territory (2.4% in 2024), but that’s a significant limitation.
Jimenez compensated with plenty of contact. In 2024, his strikeout rate was 86%, compared to 74% the year before.
This low-walk, low-strikeout profile means a hitter’s ability to make quality contact accounts for a large portion of his offensive value — which is a problem for Jimenez.
In the metrics most closely associated with hitting the ball hard, the infielder underperforms in 2024:
His expected contact wOBA of .322 is well below the MLB average (.368) and between Alejandro Kirk (.335) and Kevin Kiermaier (.310). One concept in Jimenez’s offense last season was that Kirk didn’t walk, which was pretty grim.
An optimist might say that even though Jimenez was good offensively in 2022, he never hit the ball hard, and that’s true — even though he was significantly better in every aspect, even if he wasn’t anywhere near average:
His 2022 results look to be pretty lucky, too. Despite not hitting hard, his BABIP of .353 ranked fifth among qualified hitters, and the difference between his xwOBA (.326) and wOBA (.364) was significant. Only eight hitters performed above their wOBA that year.
None of this paints a glowing picture of Jimenez’s offensive potential, but there are a few things that could help him mitigate his shortcomings.
The first is his speed.
Over the past three seasons, Jimenez ranks in the top 10 in the majors in infield hits (55) and top five in bunt hits (17). His overall score (72) in every category ranks behind only Trea Turner and Jeremy Peña. That may not sound exciting, but for a left-handed hitter with a sprint velocity of 89%, it’s a repeatable skill – and it’s the type of production that’s often not captured well by expected statistics arrive.
He also has a bit of side pop. Jimenez has a 170 wRC+ in right field, which is respectable as MLB’s right field average has topped that number only once since he entered the league. He averaged 14 homers in 162 games and hit the odd bomb as impressively as he did in his career (422 feet) against former teammate Corey Kluber Same:
Jimenez’s career-high exit velocity (110.2 mph) ties Davis Schneider (109.3 mph), Spencer Horwitz (108.1 mph), Cavan Biggio (109.8 mph) and Danny Jansen (111.4 mph) are in a similar range. At times, the Blue Jays have had some success generating power from players who have average raw power but tend to get the ball in the air.
It’s possible Jimenez tries to go this route, especially considering he typically pulls the ball at an above-average rate…
… But there are risks in encouraging faster players with less raw power to lift the ball. By keeping his average launch angle lower, Jimenez may be able to produce more runs.
It’s difficult to get into more detail about what the Blue Jays see in Jimenez’s bat, but the best argument may be the most general one. The infielder had a stellar offensive season and posted a 103 wRC+ in 2,148 MLB games. Even if there is reason to doubt the highest level Jimenez has ever reached, this is a large sample of ability.
He’s not the middle-of-the-pack Blue Jays fans have been craving, but the complete ineptitude of the offense in 2024 seems unlikely to be repeated.
Even if he performs below his career averages and projections, having a season more like his 2023 season (96 wRC+) would be a nice result for Toronto. His 3.8 fWAR in that game would rank third among all seasons among Blue Jays position players over the past two years, trailing only Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 2024 and Beau Bee 2023 for Bo Bichette.
There’s no denying Jimenez is a glove-first player, but as long as he doesn’t degenerate into a pure defensive specialist, the Blue Jays will likely be happy with this acquisition.
In order for this deal to be a steal, there needs to be some magic hidden in his bat that hasn’t seen the light of day recently—and if it’s there, it’s well hidden.
