With just three weeks left in the NFL regular season, teams are starting to separate out in the standings and in the playoffs. The AFC playoff picture appears clear, with the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans clinching playoff spots. In the NFC, the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles have all clinched playoff spots. Uncertainty over other potential playoff teams sets the stage for Week 16 games on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
The week kicks off with an important AFC West matchup between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers on “Thursday Night Football.” Two games take center stage on Saturday, with the Kansas City Chiefs (who may be without Patrick Mahomes (ankle)) taking on C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. The Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Baltimore Ravens in Saturday’s late-night game for supremacy in the AFC North.
Sunday’s games include the ten-game winning streak as the Eagles take on the Washington Commanders, the Vikings take on the Seattle Seahawks and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. In the final game of Week 16, the New Orleans Saints will make the trek to Lambeau Field to take on the red-hot Green Bay Packers.
Our team studies the odds early to find value before lines move later in the week.
All odds are accurate as of timestamp. For the latest odds, visit ESPN betting.
Early NFL Week 16 Betting
Joe Fortenbaugh: Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) Comparison baltimore ravens
last week: Eagles-Steelers under 43.5 points. The closing price was 43.5. The Eagles won 27-13.
The projected line for this game is Baltimore -5, so since Pittsburgh lost to Philadelphia on Sunday, we get an extra 1.5 points. As always, the key here is backing the dogs in the competition between John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin, who went a whopping 24-6-3 against the spread (80%). Additionally, when the underdog team in this rivalry shoots more field goal percentage than it does, the trend goes to 13-1 ATS (92.8%). Mike Tomlin knows how to game plan for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense, as evidenced by the Ravens averaging just 13.8 points per game in their past eight games against the Steelers.
Tyler Fulghum’s first bet: Steelers-Ravens UNDER 46.5
This is another situation where Tomlin is at a disadvantage on the road. Although the Steelers didn’t make up ground in Philadelphia, the game’s total score was still under 43.5. Tomlin wants wide receiver George Pickens back to attack the Ravens’ secondary, and if that’s the case, I believe the Steelers can keep this game close. This is the second meeting between the division rivals this season, and it’s another situation that tends to fall behind. The Steelers won the opening game 18-16 on a Chris Boswell field goal. The Week 16 meeting will take place on Saturday, which means both teams will have a short break.
Seth Wold: New York Giants (+10.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
last week: Steelers (+5) vs. Eagles. Steelers (+5.5) close. The Eagles won 27-13.
I want to emphasize that I am as disappointed in the Giants as anyone else. I’ve always been critical of Tommy DeVito and believed Tim Boyle didn’t have a spot on an NFL practice squad for years. But getting double-digit numbers from the Falcons? In this case, I would consider any NFL team. Because as I write this before Atlanta’s Week 15 “Monday Night Football” game, there’s reason to be skeptical of this team: Kirk Cousins ​​on QBR since Week 10 Ranked 27th out of 32 quarterbacks. That’s one spot behind Drew Lock, by the way. Give me the score and hope the Giants run the ball.
Andre Snellings, Ben Solak: Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) over Washington Commanders
Snellings’ picks from last week: The Cleveland Browns are +6.5 over the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs closed at -3.5. The Chiefs won 21-7.
Snellings: The Commanders were one of the stories of the first half of the season, winning seven of their first nine games by an average margin of +8.2 points to establish themselves as a playoff contender. But they came back down to earth in the second half of the season, losing three of their past five games and averaging a goal differential of +1.4 points. The Eagles, on the other hand, are the hottest team in the NFL, winning 10 straight games by an average margin of 13.2 points. One of those 10 wins was an eight-point win over the Commanders last month. The Eagles are embroiled in a battle with the Lions for the NFC’s top seed and will need to continue their hot streak in the rematch against the Commanders.
Solak’s picks from last week: Carolina Panthers (-1.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys. The line closed with Panthers -2.5. The Cowboys won 30-14.
left handed: When was the last time a Commander game was impressive? Washington nearly choked a lead against Spencer Rattler’s Saints last Sunday. Prior to that, the Commanders had allowed 42 points on the Titans, which was certainly a comedy of errors — but only to stem a three-game slide that included a loss to the Eagles in Philadelphia.
Jayden Daniels may be healthier in this game than he was in the first Eagles game, but the Eagles defense led by Vic Fangio is still the best in the league and Fangio has been the best in his career. Central was particularly successful against mobile quarterbacks. While Daniels’ health and Marshon Lattimore’s debut appear to be the deciding factors in a close conference matchup, the Eagles have a significantly higher power rating than the Commanders. Philadelphia should be able to run over Washington and win this game easily.
College Football Playoff Early Bets
Pamela Maldonado: Notre Dame (+150) reaches CFP semifinals
Last week: Clemson (+11) vs. Texas. The current line is Clemson (+11.5).
The Fighting Irish turned early-season hiccups into pure momentum and became one of the hottest teams in college football. With a stout defense and an offense led by senior quarterback Riley Leonard, Notre Dame has the nation’s best average winning percentage at an impressive 26.3 points. The expanded 12-team playoff format couldn’t be a better fit for Notre Dame. The Irish host Indiana in the first round as a 7.5-point favorite and have been dominant at home all season. A potential quarterfinal clash with Georgia looms, but the Bulldogs’ reliance on a backup quarterback makes that game more manageable. Notre Dame’s balanced offense, excellent turnover rate and playoff experience give them every reason to believe they can overcome the challenge.
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