The NFL playoffs are right around the corner, with Wild Card Weekend kicking off.
The series begins with the Los Angeles Chargers taking on the Houston Texans on the road and ends with the Los Angeles Rams taking on the Minnesota Vikings at home.
This weekend, we’ll see several regular season rematches, including the third meeting between the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Below, you’ll find my picks for spreads and over/under using lines from BetMGM Online sports betting.
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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans
The main storyline to watch is the Chargers versus each team’s tackles. In this game, I’m siding with Chargers’ Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack against Texans’ tackles Laremy Tunsil and Blake Fisher. It was already too much for Fisher to handle. He has four sacks in 219 passes blocked, including two in the last two games. Bosa and Mack combined for 83 pressures.
Scatter Pickaxe: Charger -3 (-110)
Looking at the over/under, my final score was 21-17, which was slightly to the downside. Both teams have strong defenses. The Chargers allow the fewest points per game at 17.7, while the Texans allow 21.9 points per game, ranking 14th. The Texans have limited skill position players heading into this game, with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dial set to miss the season. Look for both teams to try to run the ball and rely on their respective defenses.
Up/Down Select: Below 42.5 (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens
I’m going to defy statistical logic in this game, hold my breath, and take the Steelers at +9.5. The Steelers have looked terrible lately, but this is the third game between the two teams this season. In the first game, the Steelers won 18-16. In the second game, with 1 minute and 50 seconds left in the third quarter, the two sides were tied at 17-17, and the Ravens won 34-17. Pittsburgh will find a way to be competitive, perhaps with Justin Fields.
Spread picks: Steelers +9.5 (-110)
I’ll take over at 43.5. The Ravens are averaging over 30 points per game and have scored as high as 33.3 points in the past three games. The Steelers will find a way to stay competitive and stay within 10 points. As mentioned, don’t be surprised if Fields falls behind in the second half. The Ravens won 28-20.
Up/Down selection: over 43.5 (-110)
Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills
This will be another elimination game with both teams emphasizing running the ball. The Broncos defense has to be respected. They lead the NFL with 63 sacks. The battle between Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins and the Broncos’ edge rushers will be interesting, but John Franklin Miles (53 pressures, 7 sacks) will get the most out of the Bills The team’s inside line to keep the pressure up.
Spread picks: Broncos +9 (-110)
That total seems high for both teams. Both quarterbacks played well, but the Broncos looked to establish the run and get the ball to Marvin Mims at the right time. As for the Bills, they have a top-10 rushing attack, with Josh Allen and James Cook combining for 28 touchdowns. The Bills won 24-17.
Top/Bottom Pick: Under 47 (-110)
Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles
It’s unclear if Jalen will be injured, but considering the Eagles recently cut a quarterback, it suggests he would be a good fit behind Kenny Pickett and Tanner McGee. As for the Packers, the injuries are just too numerous to mention, including wide receiver and noteworthy deep threat Christian Watson. In Week 18, quarterback Jordan Love injured his throwing arm. The Eagles won this victory by a touchdown.
Spread picks: Eagles -4.5 (-110)
I’m going to lean down. The Packers lost their best deep threat, and Love had some success with the deep ball, throwing six touchdowns in just two picks. The Eagles, especially with Hurts missing two games with a concussion, will likely rely on rested Saquon Barkley to take over this game. I don’t trust the Packers offense right now.
Up/Down Select: Below 45.5 (-110)
Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This play was about allowing the Buccaneers to run the ball more and the play-callers to move the ball around. The Commander is allowing just 189.5 yards passing (third) and 137.5 yards rushing (30th) per game. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are allowing 243.9 passing yards per game (29th). There’s such a stark contrast between the strengths and weaknesses of these teams that I’m going to side with the team I think will have more success in the air.
Dispersion Choice: Commander +3 (-115)
This game has the highest overall score of the weekend and I’ll pick the next one. Since the Week 14 bye, the Commanders haven’t allowed any quarterback to throw a double-digit touchdown pass. Their offense is somewhat one-dimensional, with no running game outside of rookie signal-caller Jayden Daniels. The Pirates won 23-21.
Up/Down selection: Below 50.5 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams
There’s no denying that Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold had a terrible performance in Week 18, and I know there are doubts heading into the playoffs, but I believe in this defense. The Rams defeated the Vikings earlier this season. In that game, the Vikings did not allow a sack against Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford. Under pressure, Stafford had six interceptions and 13 fumbles. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores emphasized that in this game.
Scatter Pickaxe: Vikings -1 (-105)
I’ve been hesitant to look forward to a penalty shootout this weekend, but this is a game that can happen. The Vikings averaged 1.41 interceptions per game but allowed 242 passing yards (fifth). Meanwhile, the Rams are allowing 130 rushing yards per game (11th) and 223.1 passing yards per game (13th). I don’t believe either team’s coverage unit is sure about the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson or the Rams’ Puka Nakua.
Select up/down: over 48 (-105)
