Joaquin Buckley He looks to win his sixth straight title against the former UFC welterweight interim champion Colby Covington In the main event of UFC Fight Night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+preliminaries will air on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 7 p.m.).
Barkley(20-6), ESPN Welterweight Ranking No. 9hasn’t lost since December 2022. Recently, Barkley defeated Stephen Thompson Third round knockout at UFC 307 in October. Covington (17-4), No. 8 in the ESPN division, just lost to Leon Edwards Challenge for the welterweight championship in December 2023. Covington has lost three of its past five games.
Brett Okamoto interviews MMA analyst and former UFC welterweight Alan Juban Get his take on the main events. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the Main Event and other interesting bets he likes.
Editor’s note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Welterweight: Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley
Alan Jouban, MMA analyst, former UFC welterweight
How Covington won: Covington’s last game made me think he was done. He didn’t do anything we knew he would do. Typically, Covington knocks out his opponent early, and I love that about him because even if his opponent gets a knockout in the first 90 seconds, they know there are still five more knockdowns to come each round. Against Edwards, he didn’t get his first knockout until the third round, and he did so with slow kicks rather than punches. To win this fight, he has to do everything he didn’t do against Edwards. I don’t think Covington can finish Barkley, so drag him to deep, use that speed, and risk taking strikes with strikes.
How Barkley won: Barkley’s fighting skills are underrated. He came into the UFC as a striker, but lately he’s been beating everyone. be opposed to Nursultan RuzboevBuckley took him down repeatedly, unfazed by the threat of submission. Barkley’s fight IQ has improved a lot – he’s making all the right moves now. No one expected Barkley to come in and wrestle, but I thought he would take Covington to the fence, which might create an opportunity to slam Covington to the ground. I think he has the mental and technical skills to do that.
X-factor: Barkley’s physical attributes. He looks great at 170 pounds. And he is only 30 years old. Even if Covington can knock him out with more technical wrestling, Barkley is physical enough to say, “Get off me,” and explode.
prophecy: Barkley wins. It’s hard for me to say he’s going to finish Covington, because if Covington goes up against Barkley like he did against Edwards, it’s going to be hard to finish someone who isn’t taking any risks. Covington needs to be aggressive to win, but if he’s too aggressive, it increases the likelihood that he’ll be knocked out.
Betting analysis
Odds are accurate as of publishing. For the latest odds, visit ESPN betting.
Parker: Barkley wins (-290) over 1.5 rounds. This is a tough game for Covington. Not only has he not improved in any aspect of his game, but he recently left the team and is essentially training on his own. Not the best situation when going up against a fighter like Barkley. We already know what Covington will do – push forward at a threatening pace and try to fight Barkley for five rounds to decide the winner. However, if we know it, Barkley knows it too. Barkley has good takedown defense, and with Covington’s lack of striking ability, I expect Barkley to be able to land takedowns and keep this fight on pace, which will be his advantage. If you want to keep it simple, choose a moneyline and let Barkley be the anchor of your parlay. If you want better odds, pick Barkley to win over 1.5 rounds.
Parker’s best bet against the rest of the deck
Light heavyweight: Vito Petrino and Dustin Jacoby
Jacoby wins (+250). This bet is a value play because I don’t think the odds mean anything. Petrino lost in the first round to Anthony Smithbut compared to more experienced fighters (better strikers), he is favored 3 to 1. Jacoby lost in the knockout round Dominic Reyesbut Reyes is a better fighter than Petrino and the best fighter in the world. Jacoby is the more talented forward here and has a more complete game. I’d take it for more money than Petrino’s power.
Women’s flyweight: Miranda Maverick and James Lin Horse
Maverick wins from distance. No offense, but this will be the easiest matchup of Maverick’s UFC career to date. Nowhere is Hoth better than Maverick in this game, so I expect a dominant performance here. I’m not worried about Hoth losing only one and never finishing the match because she’s never competed at this level.
Strawweight: Josephine Knutson and Pierre Rodriguez
Knutson won (-240). For Rodriguez, this could very well be a win-or-go-home opportunity. She lost two in a row, ending in a submission and disqualification due to a headbutt – not the best performance. Knutson has much better footwork and is just as good on the ground as Rodriguez. I would consider including the Knutsen Moneyline as part of a parlay to avoid having to bet on how to win. However, if you want better odds, Knutson Decision will be your best choice.
